headroom/scripts/eval_output_shaper.py
Tejas Chopra a99dc61424
feat: output-token reduction — verbosity shaper, per-user learning, counterfactual savings (#965)
## Description

Adds the first levers that reduce the tokens the model **writes back**
(output), complementing Headroom's existing input compression. Output
costs 5× input on Opus-class models and is full of waste (ceremony,
restated code, deep "thinking" on routine steps). Two phases in one
self-contained PR off `main`: the request-side output shaper, then
per-user verbosity learning plus an honest counterfactual savings
estimator and dashboard surfacing.

## Type of Change

- [ ] Bug fix (non-breaking change that fixes an issue)
- [x] New feature (non-breaking change that adds functionality)
- [ ] Breaking change (fix or feature that would cause existing
functionality to change)
- [x] Documentation update
- [ ] Performance improvement
- [ ] Code refactoring (no functional changes)

## Changes Made

- **Output shaper** (`output_shaper.py`, opt-in
`HEADROOM_OUTPUT_SHAPER=1`): cache-safe verbosity steering appended to
the system-prompt tail (5 levels); effort routing that lowers
`output_config.effort` on mechanical tool-result continuations; legacy
`thinking.budget_tokens` clamp. Never injects effort where absent, never
toggles `thinking.type`.
- **`headroom learn --verbosity`**: mines Claude Code transcripts for
behavioral signals (interrupts, length-adaptive fast-skips, echo ratio),
recommends a verbosity level (heuristic + optional `--llm-judge`), and
seeds the savings baseline.
- **Counterfactual estimator** (`output_savings.py`): per-stratum
synthetic-control (estimated) + A/B holdout (measured) with a propagated
95% CI; conversation-stable arm assignment for A/B validity and
prefix-cache safety.
- **AIMD verbosity controller** (`verbosity_controller.py`):
additive-increase / fast-back-off state machine; live signal emission
gated off by default.
- **Wiring + surfaces**: shaper resolves the learned level; recording
rides the existing `transforms_applied` channel through the outcome
funnel (no `RequestOutcome` changes); `headroom output-savings` CLI;
dashboard "Output Tokens Saved" card.
- **Docs**: simple-words user guide + design doc with the counterfactual
methodology.

## Testing

- [x] Unit tests pass (`pytest`)
- [x] Linting passes (`ruff check .`)
- [x] Type checking passes (`mypy headroom`)
- [x] New tests added for new functionality
- [x] Manual testing performed

### Test Output

```text
$ pytest tests/test_output_savings.py tests/test_output_savings_cli.py \
        tests/test_verbosity_learn.py tests/test_verbosity_controller.py \
        tests/test_output_shaper.py -q
94 passed in 0.54s

$ pytest tests/test_request_outcome.py tests/test_handler_outcome_tag_invariant.py \
        tests/test_proxy_dashboard_stats_cache.py -q
44 passed

$ ruff format --check .
831 files already formatted

$ mypy headroom --ignore-missing-imports
Success: no issues found in 361 source files
```

## Real Behavior Proof

- Environment: macOS, Python 3.12 (`.venv`), `anthropic` 0.76, live API
model `claude-opus-4-8`.
- Exact command / steps: `HEADROOM_OUTPUT_SHAPER=1`; `headroom learn
--verbosity --apply` (seeds level + baseline); `python
scripts/eval_output_shaper.py A` (live before/after); simulate holdout
traffic then `headroom output-savings`.
- Observed result: code-review ask — baseline 1,750 output tokens → L2
1,354 (−22.7%) → L3 599 (−65.8%), same bugs found. `learn --verbosity`
on 24 real sessions → 11% interrupt / 26% fast-skip → L3 (high
confidence). Measured A/B path → 31.7% reduction (95% CI 27.7%–35.7%).
94 new tests + 44 existing outcome/dashboard tests green; ruff + mypy
clean.
- Not tested: live streaming-path recording exercised only via unit
tests (the `transforms_applied` funnel is shared across paths); runtime
AIMD signal emission is gated off by default and not exercised live.

## Review Readiness

- [x] I have performed a self-review
- [x] This PR is ready for human review

## Checklist

- [x] My code follows the project's style guidelines
- [x] I have performed a self-review of my code
- [x] I have commented my code, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
- [x] I have made corresponding changes to the documentation
- [x] My changes generate no new warnings
- [x] I have added tests that prove my fix is effective or that my
feature works
- [x] New and existing unit tests pass locally with my changes
- [ ] I have updated the CHANGELOG.md if applicable

## Additional Notes

Output savings are counterfactual (we never observe what the model
*would* have written), so the estimator separates **estimated** (vs a
learned baseline) from **measured** (A/B holdout via
`HEADROOM_OUTPUT_HOLDOUT`) and always reports a confidence band — never
a single made-up number. CHANGELOG left unchecked (release-please
manages it). Runtime AIMD self-tuning is intentionally a TODO
(controller built/tested; live signal emission gated behind
`HEADROOM_VERBOSITY_AUTOTUNE`).
2026-06-16 21:06:43 -07:00

235 lines
8 KiB
Python

"""Live before/after eval for the output shaper.
Sends the SAME request to the Anthropic API twice — once as a client would
send it (baseline) and once after `shape_request` rewrites it (exactly what
the proxy forwards upstream) — and compares `usage.output_tokens`, which
includes thinking tokens.
Scenario A (verbosity steering): a complex code-review ask. Baseline vs
verbosity levels 2 and 3.
Scenario B (effort routing): an agentic transcript whose last message is a
clean tool_result (mechanical continuation) with `output_config.effort` set
to "xhigh" the way Claude Code pins it. The shaper lowers effort to "low"
for this turn only.
Usage:
source .venv/bin/activate && python scripts/eval_output_shaper.py
Requires ANTHROPIC_API_KEY in the environment or in ./.env.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import copy
import os
import statistics
import sys
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent))
import anthropic # noqa: E402
from headroom.proxy.output_shaper import OutputShaperSettings, shape_request # noqa: E402
MODEL = "claude-opus-4-8"
TRIALS = 2
BUGGY_CODE = '''\
import threading
from collections import OrderedDict
class TTLCache:
"""LRU cache with per-entry TTL."""
def __init__(self, max_size=128, ttl=300):
self.max_size = max_size
self.ttl = ttl
self._store = OrderedDict()
self._lock = threading.Lock()
def get(self, key, now):
entry = self._store.get(key)
if entry is None:
return None
value, expires_at = entry
if now > expires_at:
del self._store[key]
return None
self._store.move_to_end(key)
return value
def put(self, key, value, now):
with self._lock:
if key in self._store:
self._store.move_to_end(key)
self._store[key] = (value, now + self.ttl)
if len(self._store) > self.max_size:
self._store.popitem(last=True)
def cleanup(self, now):
for key, (_, expires_at) in self._store.items():
if now > expires_at:
del self._store[key]
'''
def load_env() -> None:
env_path = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / ".env"
if not env_path.exists() or os.environ.get("ANTHROPIC_API_KEY"):
return
for line in env_path.read_text().splitlines():
line = line.strip()
if line and not line.startswith("#") and "=" in line:
key, _, value = line.partition("=")
value = value.strip().strip("'\"")
os.environ.setdefault(key.strip(), value)
def scenario_a_body() -> dict[str, Any]:
"""Complex single-turn ask — exercises verbosity steering."""
return {
"model": MODEL,
"max_tokens": 8000,
"system": "You are a senior Python engineer doing code review.",
"messages": [
{
"role": "user",
"content": (
"Review this cache implementation. Identify every bug and "
"thread-safety issue, then show how to fix each one:\n\n"
f"```python\n{BUGGY_CODE}```"
),
}
],
}
def scenario_b_body() -> dict[str, Any]:
"""Agentic mechanical continuation — exercises effort routing."""
return {
"model": MODEL,
"max_tokens": 8000,
"thinking": {"type": "adaptive"},
"output_config": {"effort": "xhigh"},
"system": (
"You are a coding agent. Use the Read tool to inspect files, then "
"report findings concisely."
),
"tools": [
{
"name": "Read",
"description": "Read a file from the repository.",
"input_schema": {
"type": "object",
"properties": {"path": {"type": "string"}},
"required": ["path"],
},
}
],
"messages": [
{
"role": "user",
"content": "Check whether cache.py has thread-safety issues.",
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": [
{"type": "text", "text": "Reading cache.py first."},
{
"type": "tool_use",
"id": "toolu_eval_01",
"name": "Read",
"input": {"path": "cache.py"},
},
],
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": [
{
"type": "tool_result",
"tool_use_id": "toolu_eval_01",
"content": BUGGY_CODE,
}
],
},
],
}
def run(client: anthropic.Anthropic, body: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, int]:
# The installed SDK may predate output_config as a typed kwarg; the API
# accepts it either way, so pass it through extra_body.
body = dict(body)
extra_body = None
if "output_config" in body:
extra_body = {"output_config": body.pop("output_config")}
response = client.messages.create(**body, extra_body=extra_body)
if response.stop_reason == "refusal":
raise RuntimeError("request was refused by safety classifiers")
return {
"input_tokens": response.usage.input_tokens,
"output_tokens": response.usage.output_tokens,
}
def main() -> int:
load_env()
if not os.environ.get("ANTHROPIC_API_KEY"):
print("ANTHROPIC_API_KEY not found (env or .env)", file=sys.stderr)
return 1
client = anthropic.Anthropic()
which = sys.argv[1].upper() if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "ALL"
conditions: list[tuple[str, str, dict[str, Any]]] = []
if which in ("A", "ALL"):
# Scenario A: baseline vs steered.
conditions.append(("A:verbosity", "baseline", scenario_a_body()))
for level in (2, 3):
body = scenario_a_body()
shape_request(body, OutputShaperSettings(enabled=True, verbosity_level=level))
conditions.append(("A:verbosity", f"shaped L{level}", body))
if which in ("B", "ALL"):
# Scenario B: baseline (effort=xhigh) vs shaped (effort routed to low).
conditions.append(("B:effort-routing", "baseline xhigh", scenario_b_body()))
body = scenario_b_body()
result = shape_request(body, OutputShaperSettings(enabled=True, verbosity_level=0))
assert body["output_config"]["effort"] == "low", result.labels
conditions.append(("B:effort-routing", "shaped low", body))
print(f"model={MODEL} trials={TRIALS}\n")
print(f"{'scenario':<18} {'condition':<16} {'trial':<6} {'in_tok':>7} {'out_tok':>8}")
print("-" * 60)
results: dict[tuple[str, str], list[int]] = {}
for scenario, condition, body in conditions:
for trial in range(1, TRIALS + 1):
usage = run(client, copy.deepcopy(body))
results.setdefault((scenario, condition), []).append(usage["output_tokens"])
print(
f"{scenario:<18} {condition:<16} {trial:<6} "
f"{usage['input_tokens']:>7} {usage['output_tokens']:>8}"
)
print("\n=== Summary (mean output tokens, reduction vs baseline) ===")
baselines: dict[str, float] = {}
for (scenario, condition), outs in results.items():
if condition.startswith("baseline"):
baselines[scenario] = statistics.mean(outs)
for (scenario, condition), outs in results.items():
mean = statistics.mean(outs)
base = baselines.get(scenario, 0)
if condition.startswith("baseline") or not base:
print(f"{scenario:<18} {condition:<16} {mean:>8.0f} (baseline)")
else:
pct = (base - mean) / base * 100
print(f"{scenario:<18} {condition:<16} {mean:>8.0f} ({pct:+.1f}% vs baseline)")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
sys.exit(main())